Milling & Baking News - October 15, 2024 - 39

Oct. 11
Premium
11.2%
Ordinary 50 @ 60
11%
11.4% 75 @ 85
11.6% 75 @ 85
11.8% 80 @ 90
12%
12.2%
80 @ 90
80 @ 90
12.4% 80 @ 90
12.6% 80 @ 90
12.8% 80 @ 90
13%
13.2%
80 @ 90
80 @ 90
13.4% 84 @ 94
13.6% 84 @ 94
13.8% 113 @ 123
14%
118 @ 128
NO. 1 HARD WINTER
- Change from -
-
Oct. 4
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Sept. 27
65 @ 75 -10 @ -10 +5 @ +5
65 @ 75 -10 @ -10 +5 @ +5
+15 @ +15
+15 @ +15
+10 @ +10
+10 @ +10
+10 @ +10
+10 @ +10
-4 @ -4
-
-
-
-
-
-
-4 @ -4 +10 @ +10
-4 @ -4 +10 @ +10
+14 @ +14
+14 @ +14
-
-
Basis Kansas City Dec., cents per bu
Cash Wheat
HARD WINTER. The hard red winter
wheat basis in Kansas City was unchanged
to 10¢ a bu lower last week in quiet trading.
Spot market offers were minimal. Some
trading days featured no supplies on offer
facing any direction or positioned facing
west. A few cars traded east at lower values.
Restraining the potential for a stronger
basis was the full status of many mill pipelines
after six weeks of robust application against
contracts. September wheat applications
spilled to the first week of October. Once those
were completed, wheat deliveries slowed
slightly and were steady at that pace last week.
Ideas among traders were fewer bushels were
on October's books than September's.
In the central and southern Plains, winter
wheat seeding continued apace with no sign
of storm activity that could generate muchneeded
precipitation as the crop emerges.
Wheat planting by Oct. 6 was 52% completed
in Kansas (32% a week earlier, 50% as
the 2019-23 average), 32% in Oklahoma (22%,
46%), 51% in Texas (43%, 50%), 82% in Colorado
(69%, 82%), 87% in Nebraska (71%, 84%), 70% in
South Dakota (58%, 78%) and 64% in Montana
(61%, 60%), the US Department of Agriculture
said. Emergence was 21% in Kansas, 26% in
Texas, 42% in Colorado, 37% in Nebraska, 50%
in Montana and 31% in South Dakota.
The USDA in its October World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates report
forecast the carryover of hard red winter
wheat on June 1, 2025, at 371 million bus,
down 1 million bus from the September
projection and up 35% from 274 million
bus in 2024. The lower carryover reflected
decreased estimates for beginning stocks
and production, a 10-million-bus increase in
projected feed and residual use and a 20-million-bus
decrease in expected exports.
The USDA Grain Stocks report issued
Sept. 30 indicated hard red winter wheat
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Year
ago
Oct. 11
75 @ 85
90 @ 100
95 @ 105
95 @ 105
95 @ 105
95 @ 105
95 @ 105
95 @ 105
95 @ 105
105 @ 115
105 @ 115
115 @ 125
115 @ 125
115 @ 125
115 @ 125
115 @ 125
120 @ 130
Ordinary
11%
12%
13%
13.5%
14%
14.5%
NO. 1 HARD SPRING
- Change from -
Premium
. . .
. . .
50
. . .
125
250
250
. . .
. . .
Oct. 4
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
0 @ -20
. . .
. . .
. . .
Sept. 27
. . .
. . .
-15
. . .
+30
-15
0 @ -50
. . .
. . .
Year
ago
. . .
. . .
. . .
125
140
160
120
15% 300 @ 400 -55 @ -50 -150 @ -50 200 @ 250
16%
17%
. . .
. . .
Basis Minneapolis Dec., delivered Chicago/beyond cents per bu
For shipment
GULF EXPORT BIDS AND OFFERS
Oct. 11
Offer
Bid
No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
October
+120 Dec.
November +120 Dec.
December +120 Dec.
January
October
January
+120 March
+50 Dec.
November +70 Dec.
December +85 Dec.
+75 March
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
stocks in the Southwest - Kansas, Oklahoma,
Texas, Nebraska and Colorado - on
Sept. 1 totaled 656,280,000 bus, up 30% from
505,584,000 bus a year earlier, with 11% of
the region's inventory on farms.
Salina wheat bids through October were
30¢ under KC December; November, 25¢ under
December; December, 20¢ under December.
Hutchinson elevator bids through October
were 5¢ under December; June 2025, 10¢
under KC July. Wichita elevator bids through
November were 25¢ under KC December.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on milling quality
hard red spring wheat in Minneapolis
were unchanged to 55¢ a bu lower last week.
A few cars offered per trading day on the
spot market signaled a slowing of wheat
movement from the brisk pace seen during
the gut slot of harvest in September. Spring
wheat spot basis levels have traded in somewhat
volatile ranges, and carries in Minneapolis
wheat futures encouraged sellers to
store wheat for later.
The USDA quarterly Grain Stocks
report indicated Sept. 1 wheat stocks in the
Upper Midwest - North Dakota, South
Dakota, Minnesota and Montana - totaled
633,050,000 bus, up 12% from a year earlier.
On-farm storage comprised 23% of the total.
The USDA forecast June 1, 2025, hard red
spring wheat carryover at 194 million bus,
down 12 million bus from the September
projection based on an increased production
+130
+130
+130
+130
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
+60
+80
+95
+85
. . .
. . .
+125 Dec.
+100 March
. . .
+145 Dec.
+145 Dec.
+150 March
For shipment
Year ago
Bid
50
80
110
140
170
OJ AJ
PACIFIC NORTHWEST
Oct. 11
Bid
. . .
November
December
$ per bu
November
December
November
December
6.30
6.30
. . .
1.30
1.30
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
October
1.80
1.80
1.80
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
estimate and a larger import forecast only
partly offset by increased feed and residual
use and a 10-million-bus increase in exports.
SOFT RED. Mills, including smaller truckbased
operations and large rail-supplied
locations, actively sought wheat coverage
for October through May.
Seeding by Oct. 6 was 10% complete in Missouri,
18% in Illinois, 22% in Indiana, 32% in
Ohio and 44% in Michigan. Emergence was
6% in Illinois, 6% in Indiana, 8% in Ohio, 15% in
Michigan and 2% in Missouri, per the USDA.
The USDA forecast the carryover of
soft red winter wheat on June 1, 2025, at
121 million bus, down 15 million bus from
September based on increased forecasts for
exports, feed and residual use.
The USDA indicated Sept. 1 wheat stocks
in the Central states - Missouri, Illinois,
Indiana, Ohio and Michigan - totaled
214,049,000 bus, down 15% from 2024.
The St. Louis-area mill bid nearby was 15¢
over Chicago December; November, 25¢ over
December; December, 35¢ over December;
January, 15¢ over March. Toledo mill bid
through December was 15¢ under December;
January-March, 10¢ under March. Cincinnati
elevator bid through November was
99¢ under Chicago December; December, 22¢
under December. Michigan soft white winter
wheat mill bids for October were 10¢ over
Chicago December; soft red winter wheat
mill bids were 15¢ under December. MBN
MILLING & BAKING NEWS 39
+.30
+.30
+.30
+.30
+.30
+.30
1.60
1.60
. . .
Oct. 4
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
October
. . .
+.30
+.25
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
October
. . .
-
-
-
-
NO. 1 HARD WINTER PREMIUM, 12.2%
- Change from -
Sept. 27
. . .
+.30
+.25
. . .
Year
ago
. . .
7.15
7.20
1.15
1.10
. . .
Basis Kansas City, cents per bu
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Milling & Baking News - October 15, 2024

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