Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 44

TUES | 05 03 202 2
'Food-vs.-fuel' tussle growing
amid push for renewable diesel
ISLE OF PALMS, SC. -Growing
demand for renewable diesel behind
a major expansion of North American
canola and soybean crushing capacity
will generate numerous challenges
related to crush, crop rotations, acreage,
exports and the food-versus fuel question
in the coming years, Bill Lapp, founder
and president of Advanced Economic
Solutions, Omaha, Neb., told participants
rise to 32 billion lbs for 2024. The change,
24 billion lbs, is equal to about 41% of
expected US ethanol production in 2022;
or 2.1 billion tonnes of soybeans, about
what the United States crushes at present;
or 26 million tonnes of canola compared
with 10 million tonnes crushed annually
in Canada today.
Bill Lapp speaking at the North American Millers' Association's spring
conference in South Carolina last month.
at the North American Millers' Association's
2022 Spring Conference at Wild
Dunes Resort on the coast of South Carolina
last month.
Mr. Lapp, who began his career with
Quaker Oats and was chief economist for
ConAgra Foods before founding AES,
engaged NAMA members with a thorough
account of big changes in store in a
comprehensive presentation referencing
both " Peaky Blinders " and the Red Hot
Chili Peppers. His expertise comes from
30-plus years analyzing and forecasting
economic conditions and providing
comprehensive economic analyses of the
major commodity markets.
The US Energy Information Administration
expects renewable diesel
(RD) capacity to rise to 4 billion gallons
in 2024, up from 1 billion gallons in
2021. Since production of 1 gallon of RD
requires about 8 lbs of fats and oils, 8 billion
lbs of capacity in 2021 would need to
44 MILLING & BAKING NEWS
Mr. Lapp was skeptical.
" We're not going to get to 4 billion
gallons; it's just
physically impossible, "
he said. " We
might build out the
crush capacity and
then try to figure
what to do with all
the protein meal we
produce in that and
what it does for the
balance sheet, but we
probably won't reach
the 4 billion gallons.
And through 2026,
it's actually 6 billion
gallons. I can't see a
possible way for us
to get all the way to the finish line. "
Nearly all existing capacity and that
being built today has some direct or
tangential affiliation with an energy
company, Mr. Lapp said, typically tied to
its environmental, social and governance
criteria, one of which is to use more fats
and oils for renewable diesel no matter
the effects on the price of those commodities
or expansion of agricultural land in
South America, he said. Oil companies
already have said they'll expand capacity
to 4 billion gallons, he said.
Why the push to quadruple RD capacity?
" Because
we can, " Mr. Lapp said, flashing
a picture of the titular Birmingham
gang from " Peaky Blinders " and referencing
their common refrain.
" Why are we going from 1 million to 4
million? The first thing is Californication,
those of you who are familiar with the
Red Hot Chili Peppers, " Mr. Lapp said.
" The low-carbon fuel standard. California
rules say between 2009 through 2030
they're going to gradually reduce the
amount of transportation fuel use from
hydrocarbon-based sources. That means
they must find a substitute. "
The ethanol industry sees this as a
windfall, Mr. Lapp said. But that calculus
neglects California's fuel source differential
that, for example, allows fewer tax
credits for ethanol and biodiesel production,
and more from RD made from soybeans
or used cooking oil.
" Based on the tax credits from California,
used cooking oil is worth 10% more to
the renewable diesel maker's bottom line
because of the bigger credit you get from
the state of California, " he said. " So thank
you, California, for promoting these other
fats and oils and lard and tallow. "
A large share will come from canola
crush in Canada, which is expected to rise
to 16 million tonnes from 11 million tonnes
in three years. But Canadian farmers
won't want to plant back-to-back canola in
their rotations, so much of that expansion
will come from reduced exports, Mr. Lapp
said. Expansion of US canola acreage for
RD production is unlikely, so increases
mostly will come from soybeans. More
than 20 new plants will come on stream
in the near future, broaching the question
of how to find homes for the soybean
meal produced, which will undoubtedly
affect the market for other feedstuffs
such as dried distillers' grain and wheat
middlings.
" (But) it's a mistake to think if we're
going to crush more soybeans, we need
more acres, " he said. " It's going to have to
come from something else. It's a limited
pie. You look at the total acreage there,
we just don't have the capacity to do it. I
think there will be a big adjustment in
US export demand and limited impact
on the soybean crush of 1 million to 4
million acres maybe. Where we will get
the additional acreage is in places like
Brazil. A year ago, we would have said
Ukraine and other parts of the world
where maybe they are willing to expand
acreage. Otherwise, it's a full-on acreage
battle, and it's a full-on food-versus-fuel
battle we're going to have for the next
couple years. " MBN
bakingbusiness.com
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Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022

Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - Intro
Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 1
Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 2
Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 3
Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 4
Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 5
Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 6
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Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 8
Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 9
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Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 11
Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 12
Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 13
Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 14
Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 15
Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 16
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Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 20
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Milling & Baking News - May 3, 2022 - 64
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