Milling & Baking News - August 8, 2023 - 28

TUES | 08 08 2023
Harsh conditions threaten Canada's
wheat crop potential
BY DREW LERNER
KANSAS CITY - Canada Prairies wheat
has been toasted without being harvested
this summer. Too much dryness and
heat has crushed the grain into a smaller
potential volume of flour. The impact of
lower production will be felt around the
world because of other problems with
spring wheat and durum in the northern
US Plains, North Africa, parts of Europe
and northern China.
Most of the production woes this
summer were not likely as significant
in areas outside of Canada as they were
within the confines of the Prairies. Southern
and eastern Alberta and
southwestern Saskatchewan
came into the growing season
with seven years of poor
rainfall reflected in very low
soil moisture. The ground
was too dry to support crops
during periods of dry weather
without a general soaking rain
occurring first. Well, there has
been no soaking this summer.
May was the hottest month.
June was not much better, and
July was not nearly as hot, but
rainfall was as poor as it was
in June for many areas and
now the ground is critically
low of moisture.
Reproduction and filling of all small
grains produced in Canada this summer
has occurred in a harsh environment
during much of the growing season.
There were some occasions when rain
fell and encouragement was given for the
future, but July weather was too dry. Soil
moisture decreased greatly in July with
drought that had been confined to the
southwestern Prairies quickly expanding
through all of Saskatchewan. At the end
of July soil moisture in western Manitoba
was also rated very short.
The lack of rain has put a final nail into
the spring cereal coffin for 2023. Some
areas have produced well, but a larger
percentage of this year's crop has not
28 MILLING & BAKING NEWS
been so fortunate, and lower production
is expected nationally. Manitoba, eastern
Saskatchewan and western Alberta yields
were best. Even though the crop is not
finished, there is not enough time left in
the growing season to turn around the
damage done. Most of the cereal crops are
filling and maturing with some already
being harvested.
Canada's woes are also found across
the border in the northern US Plains
although the damage done there was not
suspected of being quite so harsh. Some
counties in Montana and North Dakota
small grain crop in Europe was more
seriously harmed by dryness and heat
than this year's crop, but the smaller crop
was additive to the losses from North
America.
The same may be said for some of the
AVERAGE 7-DAY TOPSOIL MOISTURE
(PERIOD ENDED AUG. 1)
spring wheat in Russia and Kazakhstan.
Weather this growing season was frequently
drier and warmer than usual,
resulting in some reduction in overall
production. Again, the losses from
central Asia were not enough on their
own to have a big impact on the world
although when added to problems in the
United States, Canada,
Europe and North Africa,
the impact becomes a little
more interesting.
North Africa finally got
its durum wheat crop harvested
this year. Dryness
occurred during reproduction,
and then rainy
weather occurred during
the harvest. Recent conditions
have been incredibly
hot, but the heatwave had
little impact on production
other than accelerating
crop maturation and harvesting.
China
winter wheat
endured the same fate as Canada's Prairies
wheat, barley and oats, but there were
other areas reporting favorable production.
Nevertheless, North America small
grain production also was reduced by a
very tough year in hard red winter wheat
areas of the central Plains. The Midwest
soft wheat crop performed very well, and
irrigated crops in the Pacific Northwest
also performed well.
Outside of North America, small grain
production has been reduced to some
degree in parts of Europe because of
dryness and some heat this summer. The
damage done in Europe may not have
been as significant as that in Canada, but
it will be a smaller crop as well. The 2022
production - like that of India, Russia
and Ukraine - was mostly good this year,
but spring cereals suffered a little loss in
Inner Mongolia. World Weather, Inc. does
not believe the setback in China's spring
wheat will have much impact on world
small grain supply, but then there are
Argentina and Australia.
It has been a few months since World
Weather, Inc. assessed wheat in Argentina,
but the nation is still suffering from
a long-term drought. Just enough rain
has occurred in western production
areas to get the crop emerged and poorly
established. Much more rain is needed
to get the production potential back on
target after persistent drought. The odds
bakingbusiness.com
WEATHER outlook
©ORTODOXFOTO - STOCK.ADOBE.COM AND WORLD WEATHER
http://www.bakingbusiness.com
Milling & Baking News - August 8, 2023

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - August 8, 2023
