Milling & Baking News - November 17, 2020 - 42

Ingredient Week

Wheat Futures
Wheat futures declined last week,
burdened by a record global supply and
flagging export demand for US wheat.
The US Department of Agriculture's
Nov. 10 World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates report was mostly
neutral for wheat but was unexpectedly
bullish for corn and soybeans.
The WASDE report contained some
shockers for the corn and soybean markets. The USDA dropped its forecast for
the 2021 soybean carryover by a whopping 100 million bus to 190 million bus.
The corn carryover forecast was lowered
465 million bus to 1,702 million bus.
Corn and soy complex futures surged,
and wheat futures were pulled higher in
their wake the day of the report.
The USDA also lowered its forecast for
the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2021, to
877 million bus, down 6 million bus from
the October projection and down 17%
from 1,028 million bus in 2020. The forecast was slightly below the average of
pre-report trade estimates at 881 million
bus. As forecast, the 2021 wheat carryover would be smallest since 752 million
bus in 2015. The reduction was tied to a
5-million-bu increase in 2020-21 food use
of wheat to a record 965 million bus.

The USDA also lowered its projection
for 2020-21 world wheat ending stocks to
320.45 million tonnes, still easily a record
but down 1 million tonnes from October.
Wheat futures quickly lost their upward momentum and retreated on
Wednesday and Thursday. Wheat futures closed lower for the week, although
losses were pared in the final session as
dry weather concerns resurfaced.
Pakistan announced a large new tender for milling wheat, and Turkey was
buying wheat in connection with its tender for 550,000 tonnes of milling wheat.
Algeria was in the export lineup as well.
But the United States was not expected
to capture much if any of this business
because of still relatively high US prices
and transport advantages enjoyed by
competitors.
The USDA said net export sales of US
wheat during the week ended Nov. 5 for
delivery in 2020-21 totaled 300,500 tonnes,
down 50% from a week earlier and down
46% from the prior four-week average. MBN

Millfeed
Nearby prices were mixed last week as
flour grind and feed demand vacillated.
Most markets remained firm due to
support from alternate ingredient prices.

Wheat futures

Kansas City wheat futures

$ per bu; change in cents per bu

Kansas City
December
March
May
July
Chicago
December
March
May
July
Minneapolis
December
March
May
July

Corn prices reached levels not seen since
the summer of 2019 as the US Department
of Agriculture lowered projected 2020-21
ending stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat
in its Nov. 10 World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates report.
" The report was not screamingly bullish, but certainly constructive to prices, "
a veteran feed grain trader said.
Midds values in the Central states
took a step lower. Some feed mixers
lowered their offtake of millfeed after reducing its inclusion rate in formulations
despite high prices for most alternatives.
Others saw an opportunity to sell back
midds at higher prices after finished feed
orders were lower than expected.
Some heavy Central states supplies
were potentially eastbound to the Northeast, where supplies were tight. Several
Northeast flour mills were not grinding
at the weekend, and one planned a week
of downtime for maintenance.
Millfeed was $130 a ton in Kansas City
and $129 in Minneapolis, on a rail basis,
compared with corn at $143 a ton and
sorghum at $181 a ton, both KC. Gluten
feed was $10 higher at $205 a ton, dried
distillers' grain was $5 higher at $200 a
ton, and dehydrated alfalfa was steady
at $300 a ton, all KC. MBN

December contract, per bu

Nov. 13

- Change from -
Nov. 6 Oct. 30

5.52
5.60Â½
5.66Â¾
5.70Â¾
5.93Â½
6.02
6.05
6.02Â¼

Season's
Low

$6.00

Week's
High
Low

Year
ago

High

-3Â¼c +10Â¾c
-2Â¼c +12Â¾c
-1Â¼c
+13c
-1Â¼c +12Â½c

5.68Â¾
5.76Â¾
5.82Â¼
5.86

5.37Â½
5.46Â½
5.52Â½
5.56Â¾

4.17
4.25Â¾
4.33
4.40Â½

6.32Â½
6.38Â½
6.38Â½
6.40

(08-06-18)
(10-15-18)
(10-15-18)
(08-07-18)

4.20Â¾
4.32Â¾
4.41Â¾
4.16Â½

(08-07-20)
(08-07-20)
(08-07-20)
(06-26-20)

-8Â½c
-7c
-5Â¾c
-3Â½c

6.13Â½
6.21
6.22Â¾
6.17Â¼

5.80Â¼
5.89Â¼
5.92Â¼
5.90

5.02Â¾
5.06
5.10Â¾
5.14Â½

6.38Â¼
6.37Â¾
6.36Â¼
6.27Â½

(10-20-20)
(10-21-20)
(10-21-20)
(06-12-18)

4.79Â½
4.88Â¼
4.94Â¼
4.68Â¼

(06-26-20)
(06-26-20)
(06-26-20)
(09-03-19)

$5.50
$5.00
$4.50
$4.00
$3.50

5.54Â¾
5.69Â¾
5.76Â¼
5.83Â½

-2Â½c
-1Â¾c
-1c
-

-5c
+2c
+4Â¾c
+9Â¾c
+2Â½c
+4Â½c
+6Â½c
+9c

5.65Â¾
5.81Â½
5.87Â¾
5.94Â¼

5.43Â¾
5.60Â¼
5.69Â¾
5.78

5.03Â¾
5.19Â¼
5.30
5.40Â½

6.15
6.19
6.15Â½
6.31Â¾

(06-13-19)
(06-13-19)
(12-31-19)
(01-31-19)

5.06Â½
5.20Â¼
5.30Â¼
4.94

(08-07-20)
(08-17-20)
(08-17-20)
(06-29-20)

N

F

M
Previous Year

A
Current Year

Chicago wheat futures
December contract, per bu
$6.50
$5.90
$5.30

Bulk middlings

$4.70

$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted
Spot
Kansas City
130 @ 140
Southwest, f.o.b. truck
165 @ 175
Minneapolis
129 @ 139
Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck125 @ 135
Chicago West
142 @ 152
Central states, f.o.b truck 135 @ 145
Buï¬alo
140 @ 150
Southeast
135 @ 145
N. & S. California
134 @ 149
Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck 130 @ 145
Paciï¬c Northwest
110 @ 120
Upper Midwest, sacked
320
Wheat germ
210 @ 230
42 / November 17, 2020

Nov.
135@ 145
165@ 175
129@ 139
125@ 135
142@ 152
145@ 155
140@ 150
135@ 145
139@ 154
135@ 150
110@ 130

Milling & Baking News

- Change from -
Nov. 6 Oct. 30
+10@ +10 +10@ +10
+5@ +5 +5@ +5
-
-
-
-
-
-
+5@ +5 +10@ +10
+10@ +10 +10@ -10
-
0@ -10
-
-
-
-
-
-

Year
ago
120@ 140
170@ 180
134@ 144
130@ 140
147@ 157
143@ 153
135@ 145
140@ 150
129@ 144
125@ 140
110@ 120

$4.10
N

Dec.
140@ 150
170@ 180
129@ 139
125@ 135
142@ 152
145@ 155
150@ 160
145@ 155
144@ 159
140@ 155
120@ 135

Jan.-Mar.
125@ 135
135@ 155
129@ 139
125@ 135
142@ 152
120@ 130
115@ 125
120@ 130
149@ 164
145@ 160
115@ 125

Apr.-June
80@ 90
125@ 145
99@ 114
95@ 110
112@ 127
95@ 105
95@ 105
100@ 120
149@ 164
145@ 160
100@ 110

F

M
Previous Year

A
Current Year

Minneapolis wheat futures
December contract, per bu
$6.10
$5.60
$5.10
$4.60
N

F

M
Previous Year

A
Current Year

bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - November 17, 2020

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