Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 39

Data

USDA forecasts record
world wheat crop
WASHINGTON - With the US Department of Agriculture
not scheduled to update its US wheat production estimate until the release on Sept. 30 of its annual Small Grains Summary,
all eyes on Sept. 11 were on the USDA forecasts for a record
world wheat production and ending stocks for 2020-21.
The USDA forecast world wheat production in 2020-21
at a record 770.49 million tonnes, up 4.46 million tonnes
from the August projection and up 6.46 million tonnes from
764.03 million tonnes in 2019-20, the current record outturn.
The increase in the 2020-21 projection resulted from higher
forecasts for Australia, Canada and the European Union,
which more than offset a lower projection for Argentina.
The USDA raised its forecast for Australian wheat production by 2.5 million tonnes, to 28.5 million tonnes, to
align with the Sept. 7 forecast issued by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

We Turn
it into

World wheat production
(in million tonnes)

800
750
770.5*

700
650
600
2010-11

2012-13

2014-15

Source: US Department of Agriculture

2016-17

2018-19

2020-21
*forecast

(ABARES). The 2020-21 Australian crop was forecast to be
that nation's third largest.
Staff of the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service office in
Canberra, Australia, observed good growing conditions in
late August and early September, the USDA said.
"Precipitation has been beneficial since sowing operations
commenced in May," the USDA said. "Soil moisture in virtually all wheat cropping areas has markedly improved on the
relatively dry conditions which prevailed over much of the
previous year."
The USDA forecast the Canadian wheat crop at 36 million
tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from the August outlook based
primarily on the Statistics Canada estimate issued Aug. 31.
(Statistics Canada on Sept. 14 issued a model-based production estimate at 34 million tonnes, which will be reflected in
the USDA's October World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates report.) At 36 million tonnes, the Canadian crop as
projected on Sept. 11 would be that nation's second largest.
The European Union wheat crop estimate was raised 0.65
million tonnes from August to 136.15 million tonnes. The
2020 outturn still was forecast to be 12% smaller than 2019
production at 154.94 million tonnes.
The Russian and Ukrainian wheat production forecasts
for the current year were unchanged from August at 78 million tonnes and 27 million tonnes, respectively.
The 2020 Russian crop as forecast was 6% larger than the
2019 outturn of 73.61 million tonnes. Russia harvested its record
wheat crop in 2017 at 85.17 million tonnes. The recent five-year
average Russian wheat outturn was 72.8 million tonnes.
The Russian forecast included 58 million tonnes of winter wheat and 20 million tonnes of spring wheat. The winter
wheat harvest has been completed, and the spring wheat
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

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Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020

Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 1
Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 1
Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 2
Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 3
Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 4
Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 5
Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 6
Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 7
Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 8
Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 9
Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 10
Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 11
Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 12
Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 13
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