Milling & Baking News - October 8, 2019 - 24

Education and Research

Climate change could bring drought
to 60% of wheat-growing areas
FAYETTEVILLE, ARK. - Up to 60% of
current wheat-growing areas in the world
could experience simultaneous, prolonged
drought by the end of the century unless
steps are taken to mitigate climate change,
according to a study that appeared online
Sept. 25 in Science Advances.
In present-day weather patterns, severe
drought simultaneously could affect up
to 15% of wheat-growing areas, according to the study, which also listed strategies to reduce the impacts of water shortages on wheat production. The strategies
included shifting the wheat growing
season, implementing full or partial irrigation, increasing the efficiency of water
use, and cultivating wheat varieties with
enhanced drought and heat tolerance.
Wheat, the world's largest rain-fed crop
in terms of harvested area, supplies about
20% of all calories that people consume. A
sustained annual yield increase of 2.4%,
which compares to the current rate of 0.9%,
is needed to meet the projected increase in
global food demand, according to the study.
Wheat producers, according to the study,
will have to cope with warmer temperatures that will accelerate crop development
and lead to earlier maturity, which creates
higher water demand per day. The study
found a close relationship historically between the total area affected by severe
drought worldwide and food prices.
"If only one country or region sees a
drought, there is less impact, but if multiple
regions are affected simultaneously, it can
affect global production and food prices
and lead to food insecurity," said Song
Feng, Ph.D., associate professor of geosciences at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville and one of the study's authors.

Miroslav Trnka, Ph.D., a professor at
the Global Change Research Institute in
the Czech Republic, was another author.
Global warming is expected to increase
the frequency and intensity of severe water
scarcity events, according to the study. The
study's projections show climate change

more than 92% of global wheat exports.
The top 10 exporting regions are the European Union, Russia, Canada, the United
States, Ukraine, Australia, Kazakhstan,
Argentina, Turkey and Brazil.
Severe water scarcity by the middle of
this century likely is to occur in an almost
continuous belt from the Iberian Peninsula
in the west to Anatolia and Pakistan in the
east, according to the study. Significant increases in severe water scarcity is likely to

stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement substantially would reduce the negative effects of climate change, but the effects
still could double between 2041 and 2070.
The researchers developed a method
to quantify severe water scarcity over the
world's wheat-growing areas and to calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential
severe water scarcity events for baseline and
future climates. The increase in the average
area affected by severe water scarcity per decade was 0.4 percentage point between 1911
and 2000. The rate per decade increased to
2.9 percentage points between 2011 and 2016.
Ten wheat-producing regions account
for 54% of the global wheat-growing area,
57% of the global wheat production and

affect southeastern Ukraine, southern regions of Russia, western parts of the United
States and Mexico, southwestern Australia
and South Africa.
The study examined strategies to reduce the impacts of water shortages.
Shifting the harvest date to earlier or
later in the season may reduce yield losses.
Using drought- and heat-adapted wheat
varieties is an option. Dwindling water resources in some regions cast doubt on how
irrigation, another option, will increase
wheat yield on a global scale without "massive" investment programs.
Managing soil in a way that builds up
soil water for the next crop should be considered. MBN

Mac and cheese to Mars a goal
for research on shelf life
PULLMAN, WASH. - Packaging additions and a microwave-assisted sterilization system have allowed Washington State
University scientists to triple the shelf life of
ready-to-eat macaroni and cheese to three
years from one year. The researchers said
they believe their shelf life accomplishment
could have benefits in space travel and military meals ready to eat (M.R.E.s).
The research appeared in the September issue of Food and Bioprocess Technology.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Research provided funding.
"We need a better barrier to keep oxygen
24 / October 8, 2019

Milling & Baking News

away from the food and provide longer
shelf life similar to aluminum foil and
plastic laminate pouches," said Shyam S.
Sablani, Ph.D., a professor at the university who is leading research to create a
better protective film. "We've always been
thinking of developing a product that can
go to Mars but with technology that can
also benefit consumers here on Earth."
The researchers use a process called
the microwave-assisted sterilization
(M.A.T.S.) system developed at Washington State to sterilize the food. The food
must be sterilized in plastic since meat
and tin cans cannot be microwaved and

glass, being fragile, is not a preferred
packaging choice for M.R.E.s.
A metal oxide coating is added to a layer
of plastic film to increase the amount of
time it takes for oxygen and other gasses to
break through. Multiple layers of different
plastics make up the packaging films. Each
plastic has a different purpose, including
being a good barrier, being good for sealing, offering mechanical strength or being
good for printing, Dr. Sablani said.
The U.S. Army plans to test the products under field conditions, and Dr. Sablani plans to talk to NASA.
"We hope to work out a way to test
these products on the International
Space Station in the future to show that
the food is safe after long-term storage,"
Dr. Sablani said. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

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