Milling & Baking News - September 10, 2019 - 7

Editorial

Agriculture's role in the 'African century'

iven the change in global agricultural produc- published in 2008 indicated growth in agricultion and trade patterns that followed the Cart- ture is 11 times more effective at reducing poverty
er grain embargo in 1980, it is worth consider- than growth in other sectors. Successes have been
ing what changes may emerge in the years after the achieved, including a program in Ethiopia aimed at
Trump era tariffs. While attention has been focused lifting the incomes of rural, chronically food-insecure
over the last several months on the opportunity the households. According to One, a global anti-poverty
tariffs create for South America to expand its share of group funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundaglobal soybean production, consideration also should tion, the program helps such households become selfbe directed to a continent with even greater untapped sufficient food producers and provides "predictable,
agricultural potential - Africa.
multi-annual transfers, in both food and cash, to enMany analysts have predicted we have entered what courage greater economic resilience." The program is
will become the "African century." A report by the In- credited with helping nearly 8 million Ethiopians gain
ternational Monetary Fund bases this forecast on the food security and raising the likelihood participants
adage "demography is destiny." By 2030, the I.M.F. will access health care and educate their children.
said growth in Africa's labor force (those 15-64 years of
To whatever degree this will be the African century,
age) will exceed the rest of the world's
producers there do not appear on the
labor force combined. Outside of AfriIf Africa is to emerge cusp of matching the productivity of the
ca, the number of those entering to the
leading oilseeds producers of the world.
from its low state,
labor force will slump to 0.5 per cent of
A paper by Peter Goldsmith, Ph.D. in
agriculture will play
the population per year from the 2 per
the Department of Agricultural and
an important role.
cent average from 1980 to 2000. "For
Consumer Economics at the University
the economies accounting for over 60 per cent of the of Illinois notes soybean producers in sub-Saharan Afglobal gross domestic product, the working age popu- rica yield about one-third of those in leading soybean
lation has been in decline since 2010," the I.M.F. said. countries in the world, despite a tropical climate conThis demographic shift represents an opportunity for ducive to production. In the paper, published in farmsub-Saharan Africa, contingent on successful invest- doc daily, Dr. Goldsmith blamed the poor yields on a
ments in infrastructure and education.
lack of investment in inputs, meaning growers tend
Success will not be without challenges. Much of the to use saved seeds, low seed populations, no inputs
continent has been riven by bloody warfare over the last or mechanization and late planting dates. Researchers
half century, and concern presently is greatest around found this regime in northern Ghana generated yields
the Sahel - a stretch of land from Mauritania and between 9 and 11 bushels per acre and that the low inSenegal in the west to Sudan and Eritrea in the east. A put model does not achieve economically sustainable
dangerous mix of food production problems linked for returns. Growers operate at a loss. This rudimentary
several years to changing climate and the emergence approach may be attractive to donors or those charged
of Islamist terror groups threaten to place a strangle- with rural development but was discouraged by the
hold on the area. The region includes some of Africa's researchers. "The low input/low output model, which
most rapidly advancing and growing countries, but the predominates in the tropics of Africa, stands opposed
Sahel could undermine the continent's prospects un- to the successful high-input-high-output model used
less political instability, violence and corruption are ad- in the tropics of South America," he said. Overcoming
dressed. Poor governance across the continent remains the ill-conceived low-input model for agricultural proas great an impediment to progress as any.
duction will not be easy but will be crucial if Africa is
If Africa is to emerge from its low state, agricul- to finally begin to approach achieving the continent's
ture will play an important role. World Bank research long unmet potential. MBN
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