Milling & Baking News - July 16, 2019 - 26

Washington Update

The emerging debate about
the climate 'crisis'
BY ROBBIN JOHNSON

and standards and to support privateErratic weather, record rainfalls and a sector initiatives for change. One exflurry of new climate-change studies ample: 29 states have passed laws rehave prompted Democrat candidates quiring their utilities to get a designatfor president to talk openly about a ed fraction of their power from wind
climate "crisis." Even some Republi- and solar by various dates. Another
can lawmakers are breaking with the example: states like California and
party to discuss what actions should New York have enacted laws targeting
be taken on climate change. What are 100% carbon-free electricity by 2050.
the various plans to address this issue
Dealing with issues
and their likely effectiveness?
Several problems confront both proThe more liberal wing of the Democrat
party introduced the idea of a "Green gressive and moderate approaches to
New Deal" at the beginning of 2019.
As advanced by such advocates as
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, this was a vague
- but expensive - mix of aggressive environmental policies and
social justice initiatives. It caused
many candidates for the Democrat
presidential nomination to raise their
hands in at least nominal support.
Elizabeth Warren, a senator
from Massachusetts, has taken up
this banner and put more specifics forward in her revolutionary
Green New Deal. It is classic industrial policy in the spirit of President Franklin Roosevelt's initial
New Deal. Ms. Warren proposes
to spend $2 trillion over a decade
to promote and procure new clean
technologies. She also carries over
some of the social justice ideas of
Ms. Ocasio-Cortez's proposal, like a
$15 minimum wage and 12 weeks'
paid family or medical leave.
A plan from Joe Biden, former
vice-president, aims to make the
U.S. economy a "net-zero" carbon THE GREEN PARTY OF THE UNITED STATES
emitter by 2050 through a combination climate change. First, the idea of taxof executive orders bypassing Con- ing carbon emissions remains politigress and $1.7 trillion in federal fund- cally unpopular, so most plans do not
ing of a "Clean Energy Revolution." mention it as an explicit strategy. This
He also would invest in infrastructure, drives up the direct expenditure side
encourage denser, energy-efficient cit- of their initiatives.
A second problem is that the technolies and slap tariffs on imports from
countries with less ambitious green- ogies on which such ambitious goals
depend are yet to be developed. For
house gas emissions initiatives.
example, the United States has reduced
coal's share of power generation to 27%
Moderates weigh in
Representative of a more moderate in 2018 from 50% in 2000. While wind
approach supported by some Demo- and solar rose from a negligible level
crats and Republicans is what Florida in 2000 to 8% in 2018, the main driver
Representative Matt Gaetz calls a of this shift was natural gas, which
"Green Real Deal." This approach fo- rose to 35% from 15% over that period.
cuses on cutting greenhouse gas emis- Natural gas has half the carbon emissions over time through innovation, sions of coal, and plans exist to add at
entrepreneurship and less regulation least 150 more gas plants in the years
ahead, as coal facilities get retired. But
for new, clean technologies.
Government's role is to set goals halving emissions is not the same as
26 / July 16, 2019

Milling & Baking News

the ambitious goal of zero emissions.
A third problem is that wind and
solar power generation require backup for when they fail. Xcel Energy, for
example, said representative winter
conditions in the Upper Midwest can
drop wind and solar generation below
10% of their installed capacity. Contingency plans are needed for those dips,
and storage capacity alone is unlikely
to provide an adequate safety margin
against extended dips.
As Ben Fowke, chief executive officer of Xcel in Minnesota, said, "getting
to 100% carbon-free power will likely
require new technology that can supplant natural gas as a cost-effective
back up fuel." Examples might
include: burning hydrogen; carbon capture and storage; and advanced nuclear power.
The final problem is global in
nature. Over the last decade or
so, China alone has increased its
carbon emissions more than total U.S. emissions. China, India,
Indonesia and other developing countries are increasing their
emissions dramatically. Even if
the United States, Britain, France
and Germany eliminated all net
carbon emissions, the rest of the
world is at 45 billion tons of emissions and rising, far exceeding the
Kyoto Protocol's goal of 35 billion
tons for the world as a whole. This
is not an excuse for a less-thanvigorous effort by the industrial
nations. It is, however, a clear sign
that any globally meaningful solution rests on energy technology
and infrastructure that is low cost
and scalable. That is not an offer in
any party's current plans.
The agricultural community is
affected in complex ways by climate
change - from excessive or inadequate
moisture through shifting crop and
pest patterns to increasing global dependence on reliable North American
production in a world where "half of all
food-insecure countries are experiencing
decreases in crop production," according
to a recent University of Minnesota report. It needs to insist on real responses,
not campaign rhetoric, if climate change
truly is to become a policy priority. MBN

Robbin S. Johnson, a fellow
with the Hubert H. Humphrey
Institute of Public Affairs,
is a contributing editor at
Sosland Publishing Company.
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