Milling & Baking News - June 18, 2019 - 30

International

International Grains Council projects 2% increase
in 2019-20 global grains production
LONDON - Total global grains production in 2019-20 is
projected to climb 2% over 2018-19, according to the International Grains Council. The projection was made as part
of the I.G.C.'s grain, rice and oilseed production outlook
released in conjunction with its annual meeting held last
week in London.
The I.G.C. said the uptick in the 2019-20 total grains production projection should help to
compensate for smaller opening stocks to lift
overall supply a fraction higher than the season before. Nevertheless, with consumption
growth predicted to outstrip the rise in supply,
the third successive stock contraction was envisaged, according to the I.G.C.
The I.G.C. said the decline in stocks was entirely because of shrinking corn inventories, to their
smallest in six years. In contrast, after falling in the prior
season, wheat stocks were expected to rebound to a record
level at the end of 2019-20, the I.G.C. noted. Meanwhile,
grains trade was projected to expand on anticipated increased shipments of wheat and barley and would potentially exceed the peak of two years ago.
Global soybean production was seen marginally lower
in 2019-20, compared to the previous year, as a potentially
smaller U.S. output was only partly offset by larger crops

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30 / June 18, 2019

Milling & Baking News

elsewhere, principally in Brazil, the Council said.
Owing to the prolonged impact of African swine fever
on Chinese demand, any expansion of global use was expected to be modest. Coupled with record opening stocks,
carryovers were projected to remain elevated, especially
in the United States. Given policy and demand uncertainties, trade tentatively was placed little changed
from the year before, the I.G.C. said. The Council
also forecast a further drop in global rapeseed/
canola output in 2019-20 on smaller harvests in
the E.U. and Canada, but exporters' stocks were
expected to be plentiful.
World rice production was projected at a new
peak in 2019-20, as gains in some Asian producers and Africa more than offset an anticipated
decline in China and the Americas. Global stocks
would potentially reach a new high, albeit with China
holding around 60% of the total, the I.G.C. noted. Trade in
2020 (January/December) was anticipated at a new all-time
peak, with India remaining the leading exporter. Demand
was expected to be underpinned by African purchasing,
with buying from Far East Asia potentially subdued amid
ample local availabilities.
In other business, the Secretariat updated the Council on
progress with its economic work program, including global
five-year supply and demand projections to 2023-24, recent
developments in the ocean freight market, including an update on the new cost and freight calculation tool, and progress on establishing supply and demand balances for the
world pulses sector. The I.G.C. considered recent changes in
national policies as well as various administrative matters.
The Council approved the Secretariat's 2019-20 work
program, which included:
* Providing the fullest possible market information on
grains, rice and oilseeds;
* Continuing to develop its work on pulses and collecting trade data to establish supply and demand balances for
the major exporters;
* Enhancing collaboration with AMIS and other international organizations and the African region;
* Increasing information on the total cost of trade for
grains and oilseeds.
The I.G.C. appointed Nathalie Dubé, Minister-Counsellor,
High Commission of Canada, as chair of the Council for 201920 and Corinne Roux, policy adviser, Trade Relations Unit,
Federal Office for Agriculture, Switzerland, as vice-chair.
The I.G.C. welcomed more than 350 industry representatives to the 28th I.G.C. Grains Conference on June 11-12.
Leading government and industry speakers exchanged
views on global grains and oilseeds market trends, including a focus on Africa, new developments in risk mitigation
and how new technologies and climate change are shaping
the grains and oilseeds sectors.
The conference also featured six workshops covering
biodiesel trends, prospects for wheat products, pesticide
M.R.L.s and their importance for international trade of agricultural commodities, managing price risk in the rice trade
and future of the grains shipping sector. The I.G.C. presented a panel on its work with industry and governments to
achieve a market and regulatory environment supportive of
trade that avoids disruptions in the international movement
of grain, oilseeds, pulses and derivatives products. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

http://www.knappen.com http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - June 18, 2019

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