Milling & Baking News - June 4, 2019 - 7

Editorial

All time horizons at risk with China

ith his Twitter account, President Donald cited polling data indicating growers continue to apTrump has sought to lift the spirits of strug- prove of the administration and how Mr. Trump is
gling U.S. farmers, and through the Com- doing his job, with about three-quarters saying they
modity Credit Corp. the president is planning to shore strongly or somewhat approve. This support is exup their pocketbooks and retain their political support. pected to be solidified when the administration moves
"Our great Patriot Farmers will be one of the big- forward with its $16 billion of direct relief payments,
gest beneficiaries of what is happening now," Mr. in addition to billions already paid in connection with
Trump tweeted. "Hopefully China will do us the the China trade war.
honor of continuing to buy our great farm product,
Still, the data offer an incomplete picture of attithe best, but if not your country will be making up the tudes across the farm states. Growers account for 2
difference based on a very high China buy."
per cent of the U.S. population and are a small minorThe president accurately boasted that growers are ity even in farm states. While a share of the benefits
receiving more attention in his administration than from relief payments would be expected to trickle
was the case with his predecessors.
down to others in farm communities, rural pain was
"The farmers have been 'forgotten' for many years. expected to remain considerable.
Their time is now!"
A May article on the web site FiveThirtyEight.com
Whether the trade war with China is resolved soon compared the president's popularity against each
or not, growers may continue to
state's partisan lean (as meaWhether the trade war with
face daunting challenges. In the
sured by how Republicans fared
immediate term, growers are
at the polls in the last two presiChina is resolved soon or not,
facing the lowest farm income
dential and the state legislature
growers may continue to face
in years, and the situation is deelections). For example, in Misdaunting challenges.
teriorating. In the first quarter of
sissippi, Mr. Trump has a plus 19
2019, grower personal income fell the most in three approval rating, versus a plus 15 for the state's partiyears. Soybean prices are 20 per cent below a year san (Republican) lean, yielding a plus 4 net approval
ago, and growers' planting decisions already made rating for the president. Viewed this way, Mr. Trump's
difficult by poor weather are complicated further by farm state standing appears less secure. Farm states
market uncertainties created by the trade war.
accounted for five of his seven worst showings in the
As expected, South American growers already study - Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma
have responded to the opening created by the trade and North Dakota - ranging from minus 20 to miwar, and China has responded by purchasing more nus 27. In North Dakota, for example, the state leans
South American soybeans. To some degree, this com- Republican by 33 percentage points, but Mr. Trump
petition is likely to disadvantage U.S. growers far has only a plus 6 approval rating, for a minus 27 net.
into the future.
Other farm states in which he performed poorly in
Other external problems will compound the diffi- the study included Iowa, Texas and Wisconsin, each
culties of U.S. soybean growers. African swine fever at minus 14 net.
ravaging through China is expected to result in the
Mr. Trump likely will carry most of these states in
loss of up to 200 million Chinese hogs. If the goal 2020, and it may be tempting to dismiss such polls out
of Chinese officials is to lessen their purchases of of hand, particularly given how the last election delivU.S. soybeans and soybean meal, the epidemic will ered Mr. Trump a polls-defying victory. Still, another
help them. It also is expected to dampen global feed lesson from the 2016 presidential election to bear in
markets for the next three to five years (regardless of mind is that taking for granted states in which polls
trade talk outcomes).
are even modestly tight is done at a candidate's conThe president faces risks, too. His supporters have siderable peril. MBN
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