Milling & Baking News - May 7, 2019 - 34

Weather Outlook

U.S. planting showdown:
Nature vs. machine
BY DREW LERNER

Wet field conditions in the United
States are a huge concern for many
producers and analysts. An active
lunar cycle has been generating frequent precipitation events across the
contiguous United States since last autumn, and most of the breaks in this
pattern have been short in duration.
As long as the pattern prevails, rainfall
across key U.S. crop areas likely will
increase rather than decrease because
as seasonal warming evolves the atmosphere can retain greater amounts
of moisture that can be rained out in
a short period of time through strongto-severe thunderstorms.
A part of this lunar cycle (often
referred to as the 18-year cycle) is a

comparisons are being made to these
two years, but every year is a little
different, and this situation promises
to present a new challenge for producers in getting crops planted before
it is too late.
Today's farm technology is so far
advanced that given a few days of
dry and warm weather there is a good
chance that many farmers will get
much of their fieldwork completed.
There are tractor implements that will
plant up to 54 rows of corn in a single
pass, and some producers may have
more than one planter and can extend
that planting rate by running two tractors side by side. Not all producers
can afford such equipment, and many
do not have the ability to accomplish

Average 7-day topsoil moisture
ended April 30, 2019

tendency for cool air to be pooled in
Canada and the northern U.S. Plains
at the same time warm air builds up
across the southern and eastern parts
of the nation. The temperature contrast alone will help fuel strong-tosevere thunderstorms, but moisture
streaming northward from the Gulf of
Mexico and excessive moisture on and
in the ground that will be evaporated
periodically into the atmosphere will
collide with the cooler air to the north
creating very intense thunderstorms
and bouts of torrential rainfall. The
setup may not be much different from
that of 1993 except the area to be impacted is likely different.
There is also a semblance to 1983,
when the United States had an incredibly wet spring in the lower Midwest,
southern Plains, Delta and southeastern states that suddenly was followed
by chronic dryness and a serious dry
finish to the growing season. Many
34 / May 7, 2019

Milling & Baking News

quite so much in a short period of
time, but they are willing to work 24
hours per day and seven days per
week if they need to get this crop in
the ground as prevent plant dates approach. Prevent plant dates are still off
in the distance, and there is much of
May left ahead that weather can turn
around on.
The latest weather pattern is rather
threatening. Similar to late January, a
pool of relentless cool air appears to
be present over parts of Canada. This
pattern will send wave after wave of
cool air into the central United States
this month. That cool air will feed into
the heart of the moisture stream and
warm air that is present in the central
and eastern United States, resulting in
frequent storm system development.
Rain should fall frequently during
the month, and any short-term break
in the pattern must be interpreted as
an opportunity for farmers to get into

their fields to plant despite the lack of
optimum conditions to do so.
Two changes will occur this month.
First, a weak, but persistent, highpressure ridge will develop over the
southeastern United States that promises to shut off rainfall in that part of
the nation and induce much warmer
temperatures. The situation in the
southeastern states is expected to
prevail into June, and possibly July,
eventually creating drought-like conditions in that part of the nation.
The strong lunar cycle prevailing
across the remainder of the nation will
bring frequent weather systems from
southwest to northeast across the Great
Plains to the western and northern Corn
Belt. Those storm systems will have potential to produce impressive rainfall at
times, as waves of colder air pool up in
Canada and come racing southward
into the Great Plains. Starting mid- to
late May, some ridge building will begin aloft over the central United States.
This ridge of high pressure is not unusual and occurs in most spring seasons. The ridge of high pressure in the
central United States will not be strong
enough to cut out the dynamics of the
lunar cycle, the ridge of high pressure
in the southeastern states and the Gulf
of Mexico moisture streaming northward, but it will lift the jet stream to the
north. Lifting the jet stream northward
during the second half of May will help
relocate the greatest rainfall from the
Delta and parts of the lower Midwest
to the Upper Midwest.
A period of welcome drying will
impact the Delta and lower Midwest
during the second half of this month,
while the southeastern states are more
significantly dry. Too much moisture
in and on the ground in the southeastern Plains, Delta and Tennessee
River Basin will feed back into the atmosphere during the warmer days in
late May and June, resulting in more
showers and thunderstorms. The rain
that occurs in the lower Midwest and
Delta in late May and June will not
be the kind that soaks the region and
induces floods. Instead, the situation
will favor less frequent and less significant rainfall, and as seasonal warming evolves, eventually evaporation
rates will outpace the rainfall, and the
region will start to see much improved
planting conditions, albeit the change
comes rather late in the season.
In the meantime, the northward shift
in the jet stream resulting from weak
ridge building in the central United
States will force the greatest and
most frequent rainfall that had been
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