Milling & Baking News - March 26, 2019 - 49

Ingredient Week
Cash Wheat

HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard red
winter wheat in Kansas City advanced
9@22c a bu last week. Rail service cost
and availability woes were exacerbated
by record floods that put a significant portion of eastern Nebraska under water and
extended into parts of Minnesota, South
Dakota and Iowa. In response, front-end
basis levels firmed because mills "just
need some wheat to move," one trader
said. Many were double-buying to ensure
pipelines were adequately filled.
Railroads rerouted trains, rebuilt
tracks or waited for floodwaters to recede. Although Nebraska's wheat-loading origins are more heavily concentrated in the state's western half, rerouting
commandeered time and resources that
rippled through entire rail systems creating "a logistics nightmare."
Losses for some farmers and ranchers
include fields, crops, barns, bins, livestock
and equipment. Heavy erosion was evident where floodwaters had receded. Debris remained in some swampy fields. Initial estimates of damage to farms included
$400 million in crop losses, said Caroline
Clements, executive director, Nebraska
Wheat Growers Board. Including destruction to ranches and livestock plus ripple
effects, the state's agricultural losses may
ultimately top $1 billion, she said.
To-arrive business was light as shippers
sought to wait out high nearby freight costs
and buyers sought to keep pipelines filled
despite their displeasure with pricing.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture
field offices in the southern Plains indicated mixed changes to winter wheat
condition ratings in the week ended
March 17. Kansas winter wheat ratings
declined slightly at 49% good to excellent, 40% fair, and 11% poor to very
poor. Good soil moisture profiles were
anticipated as Kansas wheat emerges

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City May, cents per bu
Mar. 22
- Change from -
Premium Mar. 15 Mar. 8
Ordinary 160@ 175 +9@ +9 +25 @ +25
11%
175@ 190 +12@ +12 +21 @ +21
11.2% 175@ 190 +12@ +12 +21 @ +21
11.4% 175@ 190 +12@ +12 +21 @ +21
11.6% 175@ 190 +10@ +10 +21 @ +21
11.8% 175@ 190 +10@ +10 +21 @ +21
12%
180@ 195 +15@ +15 +25 @ +25
12.2% 180@ 195 +15@ +15 +25 @ +25
12.4% 180@ 195 +15@ +15 +25 @ +25
12.6% 185@ 200 +20@ +20 +30 @ +30
12.8% 185@ 200 +20@ +20 +30 @ +30
13%
187@ 202 +22@ +22 +32 @ +32
13.2% 187@ 202 +22@ +22 +32 @ +32
13.4% 187@ 202 +22@ +22 +32 @ +32
13.6% 187@ 202 +17@ +17 +32 @ +32
13.8% 187@ 202 +17@ +17 +32 @ +32
14%
187@ 202 +17@ +17 +32 @ +32
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Year
ago
70 @ 85
105 @ 120
110 @ 125
114 @ 129
123 @ 138
123 @ 138
123 @ 138
123 @ 138
137 @ 152
155 @ 170
155 @ 170
155 @ 170
155 @ 170
155 @ 170
155 @ 170
155 @ 170
155 @ 170

from dormancy. Some concern remained
about a delayed start to fieldwork, but
"that will all be overcome as it warms up
and gets some heat on it," an industry
source said. "Everyone will be surprised
at how good it looks."
Recent heavy snowfall and blizzard
conditions that halted Colorado fieldwork bettered its wheat condition ratings
to 62% good to excellent, 30% fair and 8%
poor to very poor. After a week of cold,
windy and wet weather, the U.S.D.A.
pegged Oklahoma winter wheat at 60%
good to excellent, 35% fair and 5% poor.
Texas wheat was rated 33% good to excellent, 44% fair and 23% poor to very poor.
Salina wheat bids were 10c over K.C.
May; new crop, 10c under July. Hutchinson wheat bids were 10c over K.C. May;
new crop, 5c under July. Wichita elevator bids for nearby were 10c under K.C.
May; new crop, 10c under July. Gulf bids
on 12%-protein hard red winter wheat
were 175c over K.C. May.
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard
red spring wheat in Minneapolis were
50c a bu higher to 55c lower last week.
Very little spring wheat was moving as
producers were selling only what they
needed for cash flow, a veteran analyst
said. Severe rail service backlogs worsened by flooding in the region encouraged some millers to continue doublebuying on the spot market.
Flooding caused some grain bound
for barges to be housed locally instead.
Towns along Red river between North

No. 1 hard spring

Dakota and Minnesota were taking precautionary measures such as sandbagging in anticipation of further flooding as
significant snow cover melts in the valley.
For now, the late start to spring fieldwork was a concern. Producers had
hoped for a lengthier spring field preparation window to deal with row crops
remaining in fields due to a wet autumn.
Early planting is critical for the southern
third of North Dakota. Areas closer to
the Canadian border may plant closer
to Memorial Day. The industry awaited
the U.S.D.A.'s March 29 Prospective
Plantings report with expectations of
spring wheat acreage less than 10%
higher than last year, said Jim Peterson,
policy and marketing director of North
Dakota Wheat Commission. He noted
the report's findings could be muted by
strength shown in spring wheat prices
since acreage surveys were completed.
SOFT RED. St. Louis-area mill bids for
nearby were 30c over Chicago May. Chicago mill bids were 20c under Chicago
May. Toledo mill bids for nearby were
15c over Chicago May; new crop, 10c over
July. Elevator bids were 5c under Chicago
May; new crop, 15c under July. Cincinnati elevator new crop bid was the Chicago
July price. Michigan white wheat mill
bids were the Chicago May price; new
crop, 10c under July; soft red wheat mill
bids also were the Chicago May price;
new crop, 20c under July. Gulf bids on
soft red winter wheat for March were 99c
over Chicago May, up 8c. MBN

Basis Minneapolis May, delivered Chicago\beyond cents
per bu Mar. 22
- Change from -
Year
Premium Mar. 15
Mar. 8
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
...
...
...
...
13%
...
...
...
...
13.5% 145 @ 160 -55 @ -45 +145 @ +160 140
14%
180 @ 200 +10 @ +20 +10 @ +20 145 @ 178
14.5%
...
...
...
...
15%
155 @ 200 +5 @ +50 -15 @ 0
200
16%
...
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers

For
shipment

Mar. 22
Bid

Offer

No. 1 Hard 12%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
March
+175 May
185
April
+160 May
168
May
+160 May
168
June
+152 July
160
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
March
+99 May
105
April
+90 May
97
May
+88 May
94
June
+68 July
75

Year ago
bid

+180 May
+170 May
+170 May
+165 July
+68 May
+66 May
+68 May
+50 July

No. 1 hard winter premiums, 12.2%

Basis Kansas City, cents per bu
222
182
142
102
62
M

J

S

D

Cash wheat
Mar. 22 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid Mar. 15 Mar. 8
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
March
...
...
...
April
6.02
+.12
+.17
May
6.02
+.12
+.17
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
March
1.90
-
-
April
1.85
-
-
May
1.70
-.10
-.15
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
March
1.30
+.05
+.05
April
1.28
+.03
+.03
May
1.20
-
-
Milling & Baking News

Year
ago
5.67
5.67
5.67
1.60
1.60
1.60
1.30
1.20
1.20

March 26, 2019 / 49
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Milling & Baking News - March 26, 2019

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