Milling & Baking News - March 26, 2019 - 17

Industry Activities

Panel forecasts soft red winter
wheat crop at 270 million bus

the Michigan winter wheat crop at
33,750,000 bus (21,937,500 bus soft
red winter and 11,812,500 bus soft
white winter). Mr. Van Hoose foreMARCO ISLAND, FLA. - A panel of fall, and intentions were to plant more cast the Wisconsin winter wheat crop
flour millers and wheat merchandis- acres," Mr. Van Hoose said. "Then at 9,600,000 bus, including 9,504,000
ers addressing the annual spring con- came the rain, and planting came to bus of soft red winter wheat and
ference of the North American Millers' a halt. Some of the wheat in Indiana 96,000 bus of soft white winter.
Mr. Branstetter forecast soft red winAssociation in Marco Island on March and Ohio that had just been planted
12 forecast soft red winter wheat pro- had water damage before it even got ter wheat production in the Northeast
duction in the United States in 2019 at a very good stand. Rains were on and and Mid-Atlantic states (Delaware,
269,922,000 bus, down 15,636,000 bus, off from then on, and planting was Maryland, New Jersey, New York and
Pennsylvania) at 28,411,000 bus, down
tough at best.
or 5%, from 285,558,000 bus in 2018.
Mr. Van Hoose trimmed planted 3,704,000 bus, or 12%, from 32,115,000
If the forecast is realized, soft red
winter wheat production will have area estimates as contained in the bus in 2018.
"Winter wheat in the Northeast got
decreased in six consecutive years U.S.D.A.'s Winter Wheat and Canola
off to an earlier start than in
from the recent high pro2017, but then started getduction of 568 million bus
Soft red winter wheat
ting delayed as the weather
in 2013. The 2019 crop also u
production by state
patterns shifted wetter," Mr.
would be the smallest since
Branstetter said. "There are
219 million bus in 2010,
Harvested
2019
2018
Change
a few common themes that
and with that exception of
area
soft red
soft red
from
developed when talking to
that year's crop, would be
(1,000 acres) Yield (1,000 bus) (1,000 bus) 2018
farmers in the Northeast.
the smallest soft red winter
Ala.
112
71
7,952
7,920
0%
The first being they had
wheat outturn in records
Ark.
93
59
5,487
5,173
6%
intentions to plant more
extending back to 1984.
Del.
48
71
3,408
3,195
7%
wheat than what they were
Production was forecast
Fla.
12
45
527
331
59%
actually able to plant, and
to be down from 2018 in the
Ga.
101
53
5,337
3,742
43%
the second being the wheat
Central states, the Mid-AtIll.
543
68
36,910
36,960
0%
Ind.
235
69
16,215
18,460
-12%
that was planted either
lantic states and the SouthKy.
353
75
26,445
19,800
34%
was planted later than they
east. Decreases forecast for
La.
19
57
1,069
650
64%
would have preferred and/
those states more than offset
Md.
186
63
11,718
12,600
-7%
or what was planted was
production gains forecast for
Mich.
293
75
21,938
21,075
4%
mudded or scraped in.
the Midwest states as well as
Miss.
41
55
2,269
1,470
54%
"There has been wideacross much of the South
Mo.
518
59
30,533
30,373
1%
spread
talk that the fields
and Delta states.
N.J.
13
62
806
930
-13%
visually don't look very
The panelists also forecast
N.Y.
62
64
3,994
6,162
-35%
healthy as some fields never
the soft white winter wheat
N.C.
310
55
17,050
21,090
-19%
Ohio
410
69
28,290
33,750
-16%
germinated before winter
crop, whose principal proOkla.
29
35
1,029
700
47%
hit. It will be interesting to
duction region is the Pacific
Pa.
131
65
8,485
9,237
-8%
see if condition ratings imNorthwest, at 183,152,000
S.C.
52
50
2,600
3,510
-26%
prove between now and
bus, down 33,633,000 bus,
Tenn.
244
67
16,361
18,525
-12%
spring as there has been
or 16%, from 216,785,000
Texas
90
35
3,150
3,920
-20%
widespread talk about inbus in 2018.
Va.
140
62
8,680
9,300
-7%
creased abandonment comGrover Van Hoose, grain
W. Va.
3
55
165
124
33%
pared with years past."
buyer, The Mennel Milling
Wis.
158
60
9,504
13,744
-31%
Mr. Branstetter said he
Co., Fostoria, Ohio, was
U.S. total 4,196
64.3
269,922
285,558
-5%
accepted the U.S.D.A.'s
chairman of the panel. Mr.
planted acreage estimates
Van Hoose was joined by
for Delaware, Maryland and
Shawn Branstetter, wheat
merchandiser, The Andersons, Inc., Seedings report issued Feb. 9 for In- New Jersey, but said he used lower
Kansas City; Carl Schwinke, vice- diana and Wisconsin. He estimated planted acreage than the U.S.D.A. for
president, grain supply, Siemer Indiana winter planted area at 294,500 Pennsylvania and New York based
Milling Co., Teutopolis, Ill.; Samuel acres versus 300,000 as estimated by on conversations with producers and
Doering, soft red winter wheat direc- the U.S.D.A. He estimated Wisconsin customers. He noted the U.S.D.A. had
tor, Ardent Mills, L.P., Minneapolis; winter wheat area at 200,000 acres New York planted acreage unchanged
and Mark Rossol, merchandising compared with the U.S.D.A. estimate year over year at 110,000 acres and had
Pennsylvania acreage up roughly 8%
manager, soft wheat, The Andersons, of 215,000 acres.
Mr. Van Hoose forecast the Ohio at 210,000 acres.
Maumee, Ohio.
Mr. Branstetter said The Andersons
Mr. Van Hoose forecast soft red crop at 28,290,000 bus based on a
winter wheat production in the Cen- forecast 410,000 harvested acres and has an elevator and merchandising
tral states (Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, a yield of 69 bus per acre. The Indi- office in New York, and their observaWest Virginia and Wisconsin) at ana crop was forecast at 16,215,000 tions based on discussions with pro76,112,000 bus, down 11,071,000 bus bus based on a projected 235,000 ducers were that planted acreage in
harvested acres and a yield fore- the state may be down as much as 50%
or 13%, from 2018.
"Planting got off to a good pace last cast at 69 bus per acre. He forecast or 60% from last year. In light of these
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Milling & Baking News

March 26, 2019 / 17

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Milling & Baking News - March 26, 2019

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