Milling & Baking News - January 29, 2019 - 34

Organic Update

Organic grain prices mixed in
November-December period

the start of quarter four," Mr. Koory said.
"However, Mercaris does not take this to
be a sign of developing bearish market
conditions as it still appears a number
KANSAS CITY - Prices for organic food- delivered, over December-November of of growers are holding corn in their bins
grade hard red spring wheat declined 2018, with some trades settling above $13 waiting for a better selling opportunity.
during the November-December period, per bu. Wheat buyers have commented Purchasers should watch for price volabut prices for hard red winter wheat, corn on generally low protein content of the tility and buying opportunities toward
and soybeans rose from the September- 2018-19 winter wheat crop, with higher the end of quarter one as operators look
to make cash flow ahead of planting."
October period, according to Mercaris, protein wheat bringing a premium."
There was not a year-ago price comThe November-December price of hard
the organic and non-G.M.O. trading platred winter wheat was up $1 a bu from a parison for corn.
form and market information company.
Soybean prices were down $1.71 per
Compared with a year ago, prices for year ago.
"Organic durum wheat remained flat bu, or 7%, from the same period last year,
hard red winter wheat were higher, but
values for durum and soybeans were through December on limited contracting although mixed changes from the two
lower, with other classes of wheat and activity," Mr. Koory said. "The market prior two-month periods were small.
"Organic soybean prices found
corn not having a comparison.
some support in December, but
Trading of food-grain organic
Organic food-grade grain prices
still closed 2018 below year-ago
grade and soybeans mostly
levels," Mr. Koory said. "Decemwas slow during the final two
National average price based on
eight-week rolling average
ber also saw the volume of foodmonths of 2018.
grade organic soybeans contract"Organic hard red spring
- Change from -
ed continue to slow from its peak
wheat prices remained below
in $ per bu
Nov.-Dec. Sept.-Oct. July-Aug. Year ago
over September-October. Howev$14 per bu through the end of
Hard red spring
$13.70
-0.78
-1.88
NA
er, the slowdown in contracting
2018, with some trades settling
Hard red winter
$12.63
+2.71
+0.23
$11.63
appears to have been seasonal as
below $11 per bu delivered,"
Soft red winter
NA
NA
NA
NA
January has already seen a sigsaid Ryan Koory, a senior econoDurum
$16.39
NA
+0.30
$19.35
Corn
$11.31
+1.05
-0.05
NA
nificant increase in market activmist with Mercaris.
Soybeans
$21.95
+0.42
-0.01
$23.66
ity. Overall, food-grade soybeans
"Mercaris has previously outappear neutral to bearish through
lined the multiple bearish factors
Source: Mercaris
quarter one as supplies appear to
weighing on wheat prices, and
be slightly ahead of market deso far, these issues have yet to
change," he said. "Until winter kill becomes tone for durum wheat has been largely mand at the moment, and purchasers are
an issue in winter wheat, or spring wheat neutral since the start of the third quar- looking for bargains."
Mercaris is a comprehensive source
planting fails to meet expectations, wheat ter of 2018 with contracts settling mostly
of market data and online trading for
steady between $16 and $17 per bu."
prices will likely continue to struggle."
Food-grade organic corn and soybean feed-grade and food-grade organic and
There was no year-ago quote for hard
prices both advanced from the prior two- non-G.M.O. commodities based in Silver
red spring wheat.
"Organic hard red winter wheat prices month period but were down slightly Spring, Md. For more information visit
www.mercaris.com. Sosland Publishing
recovered and stabilized at the end of from the July-August period.
"Organic corn trading saw limited ac- Company runs this food-grade organic
2018 after declining through the third
quarter," Mr. Koory said. "The hard red tivity at the end of December with some grain price report in the second issue of
winter price averaged $12.63 per bu, contracts settling above the range seen at Milling & Baking News each month. MBN

Planting survey shows less wheat
and soybeans, but more corn
IOWA CITY, IOWA - A producer survey
conducted by Farm Futures indicated
farmers intend to plant more corn and
cotton, less soybeans and sorghum and
possibly less wheat in 2019.
"Growers said they want to boost corn
and cotton acreage, while cutting back on
crops affected by China's import tariffs on
soybeans and sorghum," Farm Futures said.
"And, while U.S.D.A. previously expected
farmers to sow more wheat, uncertain prices
and winter wheat planting delays could
force a reduction in most classes."
The survey showed farmers intend to
plant 90.3 million acres of corn, down from
a summer 2018 Farm Futures survey that
showed 2019 intentions of 90.8 million acres,
34 / January 29, 2019

Milling & Baking News

but up 1.3% from 89,140,000 acres planted in
2018. The Farm Futures number compares
with 92 million acres initially forecast by the
U.S. Department of Agriculture in November in long-range projections that will be revised at the U.S.D.A.'s annual Agricultural
Outlook Forum scheduled for Feb. 21-22.
The first survey-based U.S.D.A. plantings
forecast is set for release March 29.
Farmers plan to plant 84.6 million acres of
soybeans in 2019, well down from the summer survey that showed planting intentions
at 87.5 million acres, "but that was just as the
bite of China's 25% tariff on U.S. imports was
beginning to be felt," Farm Futures said. The
latest results compare with 82.5 million acres
projected by the U.S.D.A. in November and

with 89,145,000 acres planted in 2018.
Farmers intend to plant 5.1 million acres
of sorghum, down 12% from 2018, while
boosting cotton plantings by 4.1% to 14.6
million acres, "thanks to better prices and
soil moisture across the growing region."
Winter wheat seeded for harvest in 2019
was indicated at 31.6 million acres, down
2.7% from the Farm Futures summer survey because of fall planting and fertilizer
application delays due to wet weather. Winter wheat planted for harvest in 2018 was
32,535,000 acres, the lowest since U.S.D.A.
records began in 1909. Farmers intend to
plant 12.5 million acres of spring wheat,
down 5% from 13,200,000 acres planted in
2018, and 2.5 million acres of durum, up
21% from 2,065,000 acres in 2018, which
was a three-year low. All wheat planted
area was forecast at 46.6 million acres, down
2.5% from 47,800,000 acres in 2018. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

http://www.mercaris.com http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - January 29, 2019

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