Milling & Baking News - November 6, 2018 - 36

Washington Update

Political tribalism and the
midterm elections
WASHINGTON - Writing about
Washington at the end of October for
an article likely to be read shortly after
the Nov. 6 midterm elections is, to say
the least, a fool's errand. Congress has
taken off for the campaign trails, leaving the farm bill's House and Senate
versions unreconciled. Predicting the
likely outcomes of those campaigns,
however, makes no sense, since the actual results will be known by the time
the predictions are read.
On the other hand, there is much to
ponder at this moment in time:
the divisiveness of political tribalism, amped up by the spectacle around Brett Kavanaugh's
Supreme Court confirmation
process; the topsy-turvy world
of foreign policy, with longterm alliances like NATO and
with Saudi Arabia now under
a cloud, Russia hovering over
elections past and present and
China potentially transforming from friendly trade partner
to feared rival; and the shifting sands of trade and climatechange policies. So, let me hazard a few
comments about these issues.
The midterm elections are testing
two pieces of conventional wisdom.
One is that the party in the White
House generally loses ground in the
midterms. The other is that elections
in peace time are about pocketbook
issues. Taking the latter first, the 2018
elections are coming in economic good
times: virtually the longest period of
sustained economic growth and bull
equity markets; unemployment below
4% and inflation under control; and
wages starting to show increases after a long period of stagnation. How
could the party in power - the Republicans - be in trouble?
Yet, they are. Most election prognosticators give the Democrats a good
chance to exceed the net 23 seats they
need to gain to become the majority
in the House. The consensus among
them is that the Republicans may keep
control of the Senate but mainly because they need to defend only onethird as many seats as the Democrats.
The contentious Kavanaugh confirmation process appears to have energized the bases of both parties but
with unclear effects on the larger electorate. The normally restrained New
York Times editorial board, however,
36 / November 6, 2018

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made an ill-considered charge against
Maine Senator Susan Collins, calling
her a "gender traitor." We seem to
have drifted far from the normal Senate role of "advise and consent."
New York Times Op-Ed columnist
David Brooks recently wrote about an
analysis of this phenomenon by the
international initiative More in Common, in a report they called "Hidden
Tribes." It examined this political divisiveness through a detailed survey.
The surprising conclusion was that the
most extreme views on both sides of

Trade and climate change
President Trump has purposely challenged the status
quo on trade (withdrawing
from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or T.P.P., and replacing
NAFTA with the United StatesMexico-Canada
Agreement,
or U.S.M.C.A.) and climate
change (announcing U.S. withdrawal from the Paris treaty,
which becomes effective in
2020, while loosening domestic environmental regulations).
Both actions have prompted some interesting political realignments.
Democrats who have historically
voted against trade agreements have
risen to speak in support of T.P.P. and
NAFTA. Will this broaden support
once again for trade reform, or will
traditional views resurface when the
U.S.M.C.A. comes up for congressional approval?
On climate change, while the Environmental Protection Agency loosens
many restrictions, many business leaders have committed their organizations
to do more to fight it. U.S. carbon emissions remain below their 2005 peak.
Cleaner-burning natural gas continues
to displace coal in the United States
while the debate about what a "clean
energy future" should look like gains
more depth and realism.
All of which is reminiscent of the famous Chinese curse: "May you live in
interesting times." MBN
©MICROPHOTO1 - STOCK.ADOBE.COM

BY ROBBIN JOHNSON

object of President Trump's ire. Its
"soft power" benefits are seen as a
possible counter-balance to China's
foreign aid and investments, and that
could help open new farm markets.
Europe and the Middle East also are
undergoing significant changes. More
cost-sharing for NATO, Britain's negotiations to exit the European Union
and strains with the E.U.'s eastern and
southern members are undermining
long-held views on economic and political security. Tightening Iranian sanctions and questions around Saudi relations add to the tensions in an already
flammable region. Such changes necessarily breed uncertainty; whether they
signal heightened risks remains unclear.

the political divide are held by white,
prosperous, well-educated folks who
make up a very small part of the total
electorate. As he put it, "You could say
that tribalism is the fruit of privilege."
The vast majority of Americans
subscribe to neither extremist view.
Perhaps that offers some hope that
someone will give voice to these more
moderate views.
Foreign policy
The speculation and investigation
around the role Russia played in the
2016 election to some extent has obscured some more fundamental shifts
in U.S. foreign policy. Russia has been
a focus of a "containment" strategy
since the end of World War II; little has
changed there. China once occupied
a similar role, but its opening to market forces and its entry into the World
Trade Organization shifted it from
rival to supply-chain ally in the early
21st century. Now that role appears
to be changing again, back into one of
potential rivalry.
What happens with China is important for U.S. agricultural interests
because of its large farm-product
imports. China's rise, however, also
seems to be spurring an increase in
the U.S. foreign aid budget, once the

Robbin S. Johnson, a fellow
with the Hubert H. Humphrey
Institute of Public Affairs,
is a contributing editor at
Sosland Publishing Company.
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

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Milling & Baking News - November 6, 2018

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