Milling & Baking News - October 23, 2018 - 32

Organic Update

Organic grain prices lower in
August-September period

bu over the last quarter of the year following an increase in contracting activity.
Given the stability of food-grade soybean
prices and the persistence of the premium
"Organic corn prices pulled back be- over last year's values, Mercaris will be
KANSAS CITY - Prices for organic
food-grade grain and soybeans in the low $11 per bu in September, following watching the next couple of months careAugust-September period declined an increase in contracting for new-crop fully for bullish price movement.
"Mercaris currently expects (organic
from June-July, with wheat prices also corn supplies," Mr. Koory said. "Dedown from a year ago but corn and spite the pullback, food-grade corn soybean) production to increase about
soybeans above year-ago levels, accord- prices remain above year-ago levels, 15% year over year, which is notable, but
ing to Mercaris, the organic and non- with the majority of contracts for deliv- not necessarily enough to push prices
G.M.O. trading platform and market ery over the next four months locked in down if buyers follow historical patterns
and start shopping for soybeans over the
above $10.25 per bu.
information company.
"Mercaris has completed its 2018 Or- remainder of 2018."
Further, in its 2018 Organic and NonIn its acreage report, Mercaris said
GMO Acreage Report, Mercaris said ganic and Non-GMO Acreage forecast,
growth in organic corn and wheat acre- which estimates organic producers in- there were 17,648 U.S. farms certified as
age did not keep pace with growth in creased harvested corn acres 2% year compliant with U.S.D.A. National Organic Program standards for organic
the number of organic farm
row crop production, representoperations certified by the U.S.
Organic food-grade grain prices
ing 460 new farms and up 3%
Department of Agriculture Soyfrom 2017. Mercaris estimated
bean acreage, however, showed
National average price based on
eight-week rolling average
there will be 6,505,000 harvested
"robust" expansion in 2018. The
organic acres in 2018, up 121,000
U.S.D.A. will not issue data on
- Change from -
acres, or 1.9%, from 6,384,000
organic acreage in 2018.
in $ per bu
Aug.-Sept. June-July Apr.-May Year ago
acres last year.
Food-grade organic prices for
Hard red spring
$16.42
-1.25
-0.08
-$2.89
"Despite an apparent slowhard red spring, hard red winHard red winter
$10.37
-1.38
-0.66
-$2.56
down in organic acreage expanter and soft red winter wheat
Soft red winter
$9.66
-0.35
-1.26
-$0.59
sion, the report as a whole presall were down from June-July,
Durum
NA
...
...
...
Corn
$10.26
-0.33
-0.35
+$0.47
ents an overwhelmingly posiApril-May and a year ago.
Soybeans
$21.99
-0.08
+0.69
+$1.43
tive picture of the organic and
"Organic hard red spring
non-G.M.O. markets," Mercaris
wheat prices increased slightly
Source: Mercaris
said. "Despite the slower pace of
at the end of September, but
growth over 2018, organic field
not enough to bring an end to
its generally bearish trend," said Ryan over year in 2018. Organic corn yield es- crop producers have continued respondtimates are still preliminary, but current ing to expanded consumer demand in
Koory, senior economist at Mercaris.
Prices moved steadily lower since the observations suggest that with gains in the United States. Although the growth
end of the second quarter to $16.42 per both acreage and yields, U.S. 2018 organ- in organic farmland was uneven across
bu for the August-September period ic corn production is likely to expand 5% the United States, our research showed
that organic producers are working to
and were about $3 per bu below the year over year.
"Organic soybeans remained close to match the growing demand for organic
year-ago level.
"Current expectations are for signifi- $22 per bu in September for the fourth livestock feed."
The acreage report indicated that
cantly improved (spring wheat) yields month in a row. Throughout 2018 foodthis year," Mr. Koory said. "However, grade organic soybeans have carried a states along the East coast, through the
Mercaris looks for harvested area to ex- $1-to-$2-per-bu premium over last year. Corn Belt and through the West had the
Historically, we have observed food- largest gains in total certified organic
pand only 1% year over year.
"Organic hard red winter wheat prices grade organic soybeans gain about $2 per operations, with 430 farms added in
the three regions. The Mercaris acreage
have also taken on a bearish tone after a
report looks at organic wheat, corn, soystrong start to the third quarter. SeptemU.S. certified organic crops
bean, alfalfa, dry bean, pea, lentil and
ber saw the delivered price for organic
1,000 harvested acres
small grain area, as well as non-G.M.O.
hard red winter wheat decline to its lowcorn and soybean acreage.
est level since October 2017."
411
Corn
The report showed California had the
Prices for organic food-grade soft red
419
most certified organic area at 1,257,127
winter wheat averaged $9.66 per bu in
acres, followed by Montana at 437,105
August-September, down 35c from June558
acres, New York at 405,710 acres, WisconJuly, down $1.26 from April-May and
Wheat
sin at 325,752 acres, Colorado at 310,339
down 59c from a year ago.
563
acres and Texas at 302,246 acres.
Prices for organic food-grade durum
Mercaris is a comprehensive source
were not quoted by Mercaris because
340
of market data and online trading for
trading was slow and volume was below
Small
feed-grade and food-grade organic and
the quotable level. Durum was quoted at
Total
grains
357
organic
non-G.M.O. commodities based in Silver
$16.78 per bu in July-August and at $9.71
crop
Spring, Md. For more information visit
per bu a year ago.
205
2017 6,384
www.mercaris.com. Sosland Publishing
While food-grade organic corn and
Soybeans
220
Company runs this food-grade organic
soybean prices also declined from the
2018* 6,505
grain price report in the second issue of
prior two-month period, both were
Source: Mercaris
*estimate
Milling & Baking News each month. MBN
above year-ago levels.
32 / October 23, 2018

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Milling & Baking News - October 23, 2018

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