Milling & Baking News - June 19, 2018 - 18

Data

Winter wheat crop estimate up
1% from May, down 6% from 2017
in 2018, which was raised 10 million
bus from May due to a like decrease
in exports, estimated at 900 million
bus. Exports for 2018-19 were forecast at 950 million bus, up 25 million
bus from the May forecast "on tightening Russian supplies," and up 50
million bus from 2017-18 .
The U.S.D.A. forecast 2018-19
Russian wheat production at 68.5
million tonnes, down 3.5 million

All winter wheat production

2000

2005

Milling & Baking News

1,197,716,000

1,269,437,000

1,672,582,000

1,374,690,000

1,377,216,000

1,542,902,000

1,630,387,000

1,493,130,000

1,452,313,000
2010

2015

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

tonnes, or 5%, from the May forecast, and down 16.49 million tonnes,
or 19%, from 2017-18. Exports of
wheat by Russia were forecast at
35 million tonnes, down 1.5 million
tonnes from May and down 5.5 million tonnes from 2017-18.
U.S. all-wheat production in 2018
was forecast at 1,827 million bus, up
6 million bus from the May forecast,
reflecting a like increase in winter
wheat production, and up 86 million bus, or 5%, from 1,741 million
bus in 2017.
The average price for wheat paid
to U.S. farmers was estimated at
$4.75 per bu in 2017-18, up 5c from
May, and for 2018-19 was forecast to
range between $4.60
and $5.60 per bu, up
Wheat supply, disappearance
10c from the May
forecast.
2018-19* 2017-18 2016-17 2015-16
The U.S.D.A. pro- (million bus) -
jected the carryover
Supply
of corn on Sept. 1,
Carry-in
1,080
1,181
976
752
2019, at 1,577 million
Crop
1,827
1,741
2,039
2,062
Imports
35
155
118
113
bus, down 105 milTotal
3,043
3,076
3,402
2,927
lion bus, or 6%, from
Domestic disappearance
the May forecast and
Food
965
963
949
957
down 525 million
Seed
62
63
61
67
bus, or 25%, from
Feed
120
70
156
149
2,102 million bus foreTotal
1,147
1,096
1,167
1,174
cast for 2018, which
Exports
950
900
1,055
778
was lowered 80 milTotal disappearance 2,097
1,996
2,222
1,951
lion bus from May
Ending stocks
946
1,080
1,181
976
based on 5 million
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
*forecast
bus lower imports

18 / June 19, 2018

1,521,077,000

1,885,575,000

1,499,241,000

1,294,461,000

1,497,764,000

1,497,979,000

1,716,376,000

1,137,001,000

1,353,119,000

in bus

1,561,723,000

WASHINGTON - The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its June
12 Crop Production report forecast
2018 U.S. winter wheat outturn at
1,198 million bus, up 6,174,000 bus,
or 0.5%, from 1,192 million bus in
May but down 71,721,000 bus, or 6%,
from 1,269 million bus in 2017. The
increase from May resulted from a
slight increase in average yield, estimated at 48.4 bus per acre, up 0.3
bu from May but down 2.1 bus from
a year earlier, with harvested area
unchanged from May at 24,769,000
acres. The U.S.D.A. production number was above the average trade expectation of 1,187 million bus.
Hard red winter wheat production was forecast at 650,373,000 bus,
up 1% from May but down 13%
from 2017. Soft red winter was forecast at 315,500,000 bus, up slightly
from May and up 8% from last year,
and white winter was forecast at
231,843,000 bus, up 2% from both
May and from a year ago. The 2018
white winter wheat consisted of
21,829,000 bus of hard white and
210,014,000 bus of soft white.
Production estimates for Kansas,
Oklahoma and Texas all were unchanged from May. The U.S.D.A.
raised production forecasts from
May in 10 of the 25 top producing
states, lowered forecasts in nine
states and left six states unchanged.
In its World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates report, the
U.S.D.A. projected U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2019, at 946 million
bus, down 9 million bus from the
May forecast and down 134 million
bus, or 12%, from 1,080 million bus

at 45 million bus, and 75 million bus
higher exports at 2,300 million bus.
For 2018-19, forecast production was
unchanged from May at 14,040 million bus, with total supply down
80 million bus at 16,192 million bus
based on lower beginning stocks.
Total use was raised 25 million bus
from May to 14,615 million bus,
based on a 25-million-bu reduction
in feed and residual use, forecast at
5,350 million bus, a 50-million-bu
increase in use for ethanol, forecast
at 5,675 million bus, with exports
unchanged at 2,100 million bus. The

average price of corn paid to farmers
in 2018-19 was forecast to range between $3.40 and $4.40 per bu, up 10c
from May and compared with $3.25
to $3.55 per bu forecast for 2017-18.
The U.S.D.A. projected U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2019, at
385 million bus, down 30 million
bus, or 7%, from the May forecast
and down 120 million bus, or 24%,
from 505 million bus forecast for
2018, which was lowered 25 million bus from May based on a like
increase in 2017-18 soybean crush,
forecast at a record 2,015 million
bus. For 2018-19, crush was raised 5
million bus from May to 2,000 million bus, but was down 15 million
bus from 2017-18. Forecast exports
were unchanged for both years at
2,065 million bus for 2017-18 and
2,290 million bus for 2018-19. The
average price of soybeans paid to
farmers in 2018-19 was forecast at
$8.75 to $11.25 per bu, unchanged
from May, compared with $9.40 per
bu in 2017-18, up 5c from May.
The U.S.D.A. projected 2019 carryover numbers were below average pre-report trade expectations
of 957 million bus for wheat, 1,642
million bus for corn and 435 million
bus for soybeans.
Wheat, corn, soybean and soybean meal futures traded higher
while soybean oil traded lower after
the U.S.D.A. reports. MBN
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

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Milling & Baking News - June 19, 2018

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