Milling & Baking News - April 10, 2018 - 60

Weather Outlook

Winter refuses to let go in North
America and western Asia
BY DREW LERNER

KANSAS CITY - Snow and bitter
cold air have been reported in the
past few weeks across portions of
Russia, Canada's Prairies and the
northern U.S. Plains. The cold has
been impressive with subzero degree Fahrenheit readings noted at
a time of year when high temperatures should be in the 40s and 50s
and lows in the 20s and 30s. The cold
has occurred while significant snow
was still on the ground and waves
of new accumulation were expected
over the next couple of weeks.
Spring has been late before, but
there is considerable worry building

an active weather pattern will continue to impact these areas maintaining
frequent
precipitation
events and aggravating the saturated soil situation and flooding. Drier
and warmer weather is needed during mid-April to reduce runoff and
begin firming the soil. Even though
the situation looks challenging today, it does not take very many days
of warm weather to melt snow in
the spring.
Prepping for planting delays
With that said, spring oat planting in the northern U.S. Plains and
Canada often begins in the last days

National snow cover and depth analysis
(April 2, 2018)

across some of these crop areas because of substantial snow accumulations that have occurred recently.
The odds are high that quick melting will occur this month, and with
some of the snow depths running
one to two feet there will be a considerable amount of runoff, resulting in some flooding.
The next 10 days will not likely
bring enough warming to eliminate
snow coverage in Canada's Prairies,
the northern U.S. Plains, upper Midwest or Russia. Most likely some of
these areas will experience melting
snow over the first half of April, but
it will be too wet for fieldwork, and
planting delays will continue beyond mid-month.
There is also some potential that
60 / April 10, 2018

Milling & Baking News

of March and early April. Not this
year, however. There is too much
snow on the ground and soil temperatures are much too cold to stimulate seed germination and early
crop development. Delays in pea
and other early season crops also
are impending in Canada's Prairies.
Planting delays will not be confined to the northern U.S. Plains
and Canada's Prairies, but also will
affect Russia. Other areas in the
United States will be dealing with
wet field conditions for a while this
early spring. Most of that is expected in the heart of the Midwest. The
Ohio River Basin, Tennessee River
Basin and northern Delta will be too
wet for much fieldwork in the first
half of April, but conditions will

slowly improve in the second half
of the month as greater warming occurs between rain events. Changes
in late April will improve planting
conditions in the lower Midwest,
Delta and southeastern states, but
additional wet weather is expected in the upper Midwest northern
Plains and southern parts of Canada's Prairies, resulting in additional
delay to early season fieldwork.
Weather conditions should improve in May and June across the
northern Plains and Canada's Prairies, but ideal field working conditions may be hard to come by for a
little while. In the meantime, similar conditions will affect Russia's
small grain, oilseed and sugar beet
production region, raising some
concern over delayed early season
fieldwork. Ukraine weather, however, will be a bit better with seasonal warming expected soon that
will help induce better planting and
early season crop development.
Winter crops in the northern U.S.
Plains, Canada's Prairies and Russia will slowly improve. Not much
winterkill occurred in Russia this
year, but damage was suspected in
parts of Canada and the northern
U.S. Plains.
Drought a concern
In the meantime, drought remains
a serious concern for the southwestern U.S. Plains. Most long-term
weather patterns continue to suggest an unchanging weather bias
in the region from western Texas
and New Mexico into southwestern
Kansas. These areas will continue
notably drier biased this spring, and
temperatures are expected to eventually rise above average adding
to moisture losses through strong
evaporation.
Very cold temperatures have occurred recently in Russia, Canada,
the northern half of the Great Plains
and upper Midwest. Extreme lows
below zero Fahrenheit have occurred representing a 25- to 30-degree deviation from normal. The unusual cold has not had much impact
on dormant crops because of significant snow on the ground, but warming is needed to melt snow, firm the
topsoil and raise soil temperatures
in support of winter crop development and spring planting.
Not much warming is likely
through the first 10 days in April.
but the second 10-day period will
bring on some needed warming and
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Milling & Baking News - April 10, 2018

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